OACP Logical Reasoning and Analysis 5 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Dispatch logs show calls for service peak between 11 PM and 2 AM on weekends. A chief allocates extra officers during Tuesday afternoons instead. What reasoning error does this decision reflect?
- Confirmation bias
- Misallocation due to failure to apply data-driven analysis (Correct answer)
- Availability heuristic
- Anchoring bias
Correct answer: Misallocation due to failure to apply data-driven analysis
Ignoring clear peak-time data and deploying resources at a non-peak period reflects a failure to apply evidence-based resource allocation.
Question 2: An officer is given four boxes labeled: 'Evidence,' 'Non-Evidence,' 'Fragile,' and 'Non-Fragile.' Which combination must be checked to verify the rule: 'Every Evidence box is Fragile'?
- Evidence and Fragile
- Evidence and Non-Fragile (Correct answer)
- Non-Evidence and Fragile
- All four boxes
Correct answer: Evidence and Non-Fragile
You must check Evidence boxes (to confirm they are Fragile) and Non-Fragile boxes (to confirm they contain no Evidence) — this is the Wason selection task logic.
Question 3: A detective argues: 'Witness X lied about their alibi, therefore everything X says is false.' This reasoning exemplifies:
- Valid deductive logic
- The ad hominem tu quoque fallacy
- The fallacy of composition
- The genetic fallacy overapplied to credibility (Correct answer)
Correct answer: The genetic fallacy overapplied to credibility
Dismissing all of a person's statements because one was false commits the genetic fallacy — judging content solely by its source's past behavior.
Question 4: Community surveys show satisfaction with police services dropped 15% after a new policy was introduced. The inspector concludes the policy caused the drop. A more cautious analyst would first:
- Remove the policy immediately
- Check whether other factors changed simultaneously that could explain the drop (Correct answer)
- Repeat the survey with a different population
- Assume public satisfaction is irrelevant to operations
Correct answer: Check whether other factors changed simultaneously that could explain the drop
Before attributing the drop to the policy, a rigorous analyst must control for confounding variables.
Question 5: A constable observes that every robbery in her district over the past year occurred within 200 metres of a transit hub. She proposes increased patrols near transit hubs. This recommendation is best described as:
- Speculative and unsupported
- Evidence-based and logically consistent with the observed pattern (Correct answer)
- An overreach beyond her authority
- Coincidental and not actionable
Correct answer: Evidence-based and logically consistent with the observed pattern
Using a consistent empirical pattern to drive a targeted operational response is sound evidence-based reasoning.
Question 6: Two sergeants disagree: Sergeant Patel says more arrests mean better policing; Sergeant Kim says arrest rates alone are a poor measure of effectiveness. Which analytical principle does Kim's position reflect?
- Confirmation bias
- The importance of multi-dimensional performance metrics over single indicators (Correct answer)
- Resistance to accountability
- Deductive certainty
Correct answer: The importance of multi-dimensional performance metrics over single indicators
Relying on a single metric ignores other dimensions of effectiveness, so Kim correctly advocates for a broader analytical framework.
Question 7: A logical chain states: 'If there is no motive, there is no suspect. There is a suspect. Therefore, there is a motive.' This argument uses which valid logical form?
- Modus ponens
- Modus tollens (Correct answer)
- Modus ponens reversed
- Affirming the consequent
Correct answer: Modus tollens
Modus tollens: 'If P then Q; not Q; therefore not P' — here applied as 'not Q implies not P; P exists; therefore Q exists' via contrapositive.
OACP Logical Reasoning and Analysis 5
Dispatch logs show calls for service peak between 11 PM and 2 AM on weekends.
A chief allocates extra officers during Tuesday afternoons instead.
What reasoning error does this decision reflect?