LEAB Problem Sensitivity Analysis 3 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Over two weeks, your precinct receives reports of car break-ins only on Thursday nights between 10 PM and 2 AM within a four-block radius. This pattern MOST suggests:
- A single offender with a specific routine who knows the area well (Correct answer)
- Multiple unrelated opportunistic thieves concentrating in the same zone
- Random criminal activity in a statistically high-crime area
- Vehicles in that area are particularly vulnerable to break-ins
Correct answer: A single offender with a specific routine who knows the area well
Tight temporal and geographic clustering points to a single organized offender exploiting a specific window of opportunity they have identified.
Question 2: A liquor store owner reports that shoplifting incidents occur exclusively during peak hours when all staff are occupied with customers. This pattern MOST LIKELY suggests:
- Regular customers exploiting the distraction of crowded sale periods
- Employee theft being disguised as customer shoplifting
- A deliberate offender who has observed the store's staffing patterns (Correct answer)
- Impulsive theft being more emotionally triggered in busy environments
Correct answer: A deliberate offender who has observed the store's staffing patterns
Selecting only the precise windows when all staff are occupied requires prior observation of store operations, indicating a calculated offender.
Question 3: A series of residential burglaries occurs exclusively at homes displaying 'For Sale' signs. The MOST LIKELY reason for this targeting pattern is:
- Real estate showings occasionally leave doors temporarily unsecured
- Homes for sale are publicly identified as likely unoccupied or transitional (Correct answer)
- For Sale signs suggest homeowners have valuable portable property to move
- Real estate activity creates confusion about who legitimately belongs at the property
Correct answer: Homes for sale are publicly identified as likely unoccupied or transitional
For Sale listings publicly broadcast that a home may be vacant or owners are distracted with moving, making them attractive, easily identified targets.
Question 4: ATM fraud complaints at one machine occur exclusively between midnight and 4 AM on weekends. The BEST explanation for this pattern is:
- Security cameras at that ATM are disabled during weekend overnight hours
- Weekend nighttime patrons are less careful about shielding their PIN entry
- A skimming device is installed periodically and removed before business hours begin (Correct answer)
- The ATM has a recurring technical malfunction enabling data capture at night
Correct answer: A skimming device is installed periodically and removed before business hours begin
A narrow, recurring time window consistent with avoiding detection suggests a device being installed and retrieved on a predictable schedule.
Question 5: Three robbery reports from different city locations each describe the offender asking victims for directions immediately before attacking. This tactic MOST LIKELY indicates:
- The offender is genuinely unfamiliar with the city's street layout
- The victims may have collectively misidentified an innocent interaction
- The robberies are likely unrelated coincidences with similar circumstances
- The offender uses a consistent ruse to close distance with victims before attacking (Correct answer)
Correct answer: The offender uses a consistent ruse to close distance with victims before attacking
A repeated modus operandi across geographically separate incidents strongly indicates a single offender using a rehearsed approach to gain proximity.
Question 6: Graffiti in one neighborhood reappears within 48 hours of being painted over, always in the same style and location over several months. This MOST LIKELY indicates:
- Multiple competing gang members each marking the same contested territory
- Commercial vandalism targeting businesses through a consistent symbol
- A specific individual returning to reassert a territorial or personal claim (Correct answer)
- Community members lack adequate motivation to address the problem permanently
Correct answer: A specific individual returning to reassert a territorial or personal claim
Consistent style, location, and rapid return after removal all point to a single actor with a deliberate and persistent purpose.
Question 7: During a traffic stop, an officer notices the driver's vehicle registration and insurance card share the exact same issue date — yesterday. This MOST LIKELY indicates:
- The driver legally purchased, registered, and insured the vehicle on the same day
- The driver may have obtained one or both documents through fraudulent means (Correct answer)
- The driver simultaneously changed insurance providers and renewed registration
- The vehicle was re-titled after being repaired following an accident
Correct answer: The driver may have obtained one or both documents through fraudulent means
While legal same-day purchase situations exist, both documents sharing the prior day's date warrants verification of authenticity before concluding legitimacy.
LEAB Problem Sensitivity Analysis 3
Over two weeks, your precinct receives reports of car break-ins only on Thursday nights between 10 PM and 2 AM within a four-block radius.
This pattern MOST suggests: