HBRI Critical Evaluation of Arguments 2 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A report states: 'Sales increased in every region where we ran TV ads.' A colleague concludes TV ads cause sales increases. What additional information would most weaken this conclusion?
- TV ads are expensive to produce
- The regions with TV ads also had newly hired sales teams during the same period (Correct answer)
- Some customers do not watch TV
- The ads were only 30 seconds long
Correct answer: The regions with TV ads also had newly hired sales teams during the same period
If regions also received new sales teams simultaneously, the sales increase could be attributed to the sales force rather than the ads.
Question 2: Which of the following represents a conclusion that goes beyond what the evidence supports?
- Sales rose 10% last quarter, which is higher than the previous quarter's 8% rise
- Because our top performer works 60-hour weeks, all employees should work 60-hour weeks to maximize productivity (Correct answer)
- The project came in under budget, which means the project manager controlled costs well
- Customer complaints decreased after the new support software was deployed
Correct answer: Because our top performer works 60-hour weeks, all employees should work 60-hour weeks to maximize productivity
One person's habits cannot be universalized to all employees without evidence that long hours universally cause higher productivity.
Question 3: An argument is described as 'sound.' What does this mean?
- It uses formal business language and is well-presented
- It is logically valid AND all its premises are true (Correct answer)
- It is persuasive and well-received by the audience
- It has been reviewed and approved by management
Correct answer: It is logically valid AND all its premises are true
Soundness in logic requires both formal validity (the conclusion follows from premises) and factual accuracy of the premises themselves.
Question 4: A team proposes that customer lifetime value (CLV) is declining. Which evidence best supports this claim?
- Acquisition costs have risen by 12% this year
- Average revenue per customer in year 3 fell from $4,200 to $3,800 across three consecutive cohorts (Correct answer)
- A competitor was seen reducing prices
- Customer service call volume increased last month
Correct answer: Average revenue per customer in year 3 fell from $4,200 to $3,800 across three consecutive cohorts
A consistent drop in revenue per customer across multiple cohorts over multiple years is direct, quantified evidence of declining CLV.
Question 5: Which of the following is an example of circular reasoning?
- We should trust the CFO's projections because she has 20 years of experience
- Our strategy is effective because it works, and we know it works because it is effective (Correct answer)
- The market analysis supports expansion into Asia due to a 300M consumer base
- Increasing R&D spend correlates with higher patent output in peer-reviewed studies
Correct answer: Our strategy is effective because it works, and we know it works because it is effective
Circular reasoning restates the conclusion as its own justification without providing independent evidence.
Question 6: A business argument states: 'Either we lay off 20% of staff or the company will go bankrupt.' This is most likely an example of:
- Sound deductive reasoning
- A false dichotomy presenting only two options when others may exist (Correct answer)
- A valid statistical inference
- An appeal to emotion
Correct answer: A false dichotomy presenting only two options when others may exist
A false dichotomy artificially limits choices; the company could also restructure debt, reduce expenses in other ways, or seek new funding.
Question 7: A marketing director says: 'Our ad campaign must be working — sales went up right after we launched it.' An analyst responds that this conclusion may be premature. The analyst is most likely pointing to:
- The cost of the ad campaign being too high
- The post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy — assuming causation from temporal sequence alone (Correct answer)
- The need for a longer campaign before drawing conclusions
- The director's lack of marketing credentials
Correct answer: The post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy — assuming causation from temporal sequence alone
Post hoc ergo propter hoc is the error of concluding that because B followed A, A caused B, without ruling out other causes.
HBRI Critical Evaluation of Arguments 2
A report states: 'Sales increased in every region where we ran TV ads.' A colleague concludes TV ads cause sales increases.
What additional information would most weaken this conclusion?