Verbal: Critical Reasoning Evaluate the Argument Flashcards

Argument: 'Our city should invest in building more bicycle lanes. Studies show that cities with extensive bicycle infrastructure have lower rates of traffic congestion, and reducing congestion will shorten commute times for all residents.' Which of the following would be most useful to know in order to evaluate this argument?

Answer: Whether the studies were conducted in cities with climates similar to ours

The argument assumes our city would experience similar congestion reductions as cities in those studies. If those cities had different climates, cycling adoption rates might differ, making the comparison invalid.

Argument: 'Employees who participate in the company's voluntary wellness program have 30% fewer sick days than those who do not participate. Therefore, expanding participation in the wellness program will reduce overall sick day usage across the company.' Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines this argument?

Answer: Employees who participate in wellness programs tend to be healthier to begin with than those who do not

If participants are already healthier, the 30% difference reflects selection bias, not the program's effect. Expanding the program to less healthy employees may not produce the same reduction.

Argument: 'A survey found that students who read for pleasure at least 30 minutes per day score 20 points higher on standardized verbal tests than those who do not. Schools should therefore require 30 minutes of daily pleasure reading to improve test scores.' To evaluate this argument, it would be most important to determine:

Answer: Whether students who enjoy reading would have scored higher regardless of how much they read

The argument assumes pleasure reading causes higher scores. But it's possible that students with strong verbal aptitude naturally read more. Knowing if high-scorers would still outperform regardless of reading time is essential.

Argument: 'Countries with higher rates of home ownership tend to have lower rates of violent crime. Therefore, policies that increase home ownership will reduce violent crime.' Which of the following pieces of information would be most useful in evaluating the causal claim in this argument?

Answer: Whether a third factor, such as economic stability, independently causes both higher home ownership and lower crime rates

If economic stability independently drives both home ownership and low crime, then the correlation between ownership and crime is spurious — and increasing ownership alone wouldn't reduce crime.

Argument: 'Hospital patients who have a window view of nature during recovery leave the hospital on average 1.2 days sooner than those with views of a brick wall. Hospitals should therefore redesign patient rooms to maximize natural views in order to reduce costs and length of stay.' Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken this argument?

Answer: The original study was conducted in a single hospital in a rural setting with unusually large window dimensions

If the study was conducted in a highly specific context (single hospital, rural, unusually large windows), its findings may not generalize to typical hospitals, undermining the recommendation to redesign all hospital rooms.

Argument: 'Online retailers that offer free returns have significantly higher customer retention rates than those that charge for returns. Our company should implement a free returns policy to improve retention.' To properly evaluate this recommendation, it would be most useful to know:

Answer: Whether free returns policies cause higher retention, or whether retailers with free returns differ in other ways that attract loyal customers

The argument assumes free returns cause higher retention. But retailers offering free returns may also invest more in quality, service, or selection — the free returns may be a marker of overall quality, not the cause of retention.

Argument: 'A nutritional study found that people who eat breakfast every day have lower rates of obesity than those who skip breakfast. Public health campaigns should therefore encourage daily breakfast consumption to combat obesity.' Which of the following, if true, would most strengthen this argument?

Answer: Breakfast skippers tend to eat larger meals later in the day, consuming more total calories

A provides a plausible mechanism: breakfast prevents overeating later, establishing a causal link between breakfast consumption and lower caloric intake that could reduce obesity.

Argument: 'Teenagers who spend more than 3 hours per day on social media report higher rates of anxiety and depression. Therefore, limiting social media use among teenagers to under 3 hours per day will improve their mental health.' Which of the following most accurately describes a flaw in the reasoning above?

Answer: The argument assumes that heavy social media use causes poor mental health rather than the reverse

Teenagers experiencing anxiety or depression may turn to social media more as a coping mechanism (reverse causation) — the mental health issues may be causing the heavy usage rather than the usage causing the mental health issues.

Argument: 'The unemployment rate in City X fell from 8% to 5% in the two years following the construction of a new sports stadium. The stadium project clearly stimulated the local economy and created jobs.' Which of the following would be most useful in evaluating whether the stadium caused the employment improvement?

Answer: Whether unemployment rates in comparable cities without stadium construction also declined during the same period

If cities without stadiums also saw unemployment fall by similar amounts during the same period, the decline in City X may be due to broader economic trends rather than the stadium.

Argument: 'Increasing the minimum wage in our state will harm small businesses. A study of 50 small restaurants found that after a minimum wage increase, 12 of them closed within a year.' Which of the following, if true, would most weaken this argument?

Answer: Restaurant closures occur at similar rates even in years without minimum wage increases

If similar restaurant closure rates occur in years without wage increases, then the 12 closures after the wage hike may not be attributable to the wage increase — the closures could be a normal business failure rate.

Argument: 'The crime rate in neighborhoods where community policing programs were implemented dropped by 15% over three years. We should expand community policing city-wide to reduce crime.' To evaluate whether community policing caused the crime reduction, it would be most important to know:

Answer: Whether neighborhoods that received community policing differed systematically from those that did not before implementation

If neighborhoods selected for community policing already had characteristics that would lead to lower crime (e.g., more engaged residents, lower poverty), the decline may reflect those pre-existing differences rather than the program itself.

Argument: 'A pharmaceutical company's internal study showed that patients taking Drug X experienced a 40% reduction in symptom severity compared to a control group. The company recommends that doctors prescribe Drug X as a first-line treatment.' Which of the following, if true, raises the most serious concern about the reliability of this evidence?

Answer: The study was conducted and funded by the pharmaceutical company that manufactures Drug X

Funding bias is a well-documented phenomenon — studies funded by manufacturers of a drug are more likely to find favorable results. The company has a financial interest in a positive outcome, compromising the study's objectivity.

Argument: 'Mandatory physical education classes in schools have been shown to reduce childhood obesity rates. Our school district should therefore make physical education mandatory for all grades to combat the childhood obesity epidemic.' Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens this argument?

Answer: Studies showing obesity reduction from mandatory PE were conducted in districts with concurrent nutrition education programs

If the obesity-reducing studies combined PE with nutrition education, then PE alone may be insufficient — implementing only mandatory PE without the nutrition component might not replicate those results.

Argument: 'In countries where motorcycle helmet laws were enacted, motorcycle fatality rates declined by an average of 25%. Countries without helmet laws should therefore adopt them to save lives.' Which of the following would be most important to evaluate in assessing this recommendation?

Answer: Whether motorcycle fatality rates also declined in countries without helmet laws during the same period

If motorcycle fatality rates also declined in countries without helmet laws during the same period, general factors (improved road safety, better medical care, changes in traffic) may explain the decline — not the law itself.

Argument: 'Employee turnover at companies that offer remote work options is 20% lower than at companies that do not. Our company should implement a remote work policy to reduce turnover and save on recruitment costs.' Which of the following, if true, would most undermine this argument?

Answer: Companies that offer remote work also tend to offer higher salaries, better benefits, and more flexible management cultures

If remote-work companies also pay more and have better cultures, the lower turnover may be due to those factors, not remote work itself — implementing remote work without those other characteristics may not reduce turnover.

Argument: 'The introduction of standardized testing in our school district three years ago has been followed by a notable improvement in student achievement scores. The tests must be motivating students and teachers to work harder.' Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines this argument?

Answer: The school district simultaneously reduced class sizes and increased teacher salaries three years ago

If class sizes fell and teacher salaries rose at the same time, those changes could explain the achievement improvement — the tests may not be the cause.

Argument: 'Patients treated at hospitals with a nurse-to-patient ratio of 1:4 or better have significantly lower mortality rates than those treated at hospitals with worse ratios. Policymakers should mandate minimum nurse-to-patient ratios to save lives.' To evaluate this argument, it would be most important to determine:

Answer: Whether hospitals with better ratios also differ in other quality dimensions such as technology, physician experience, or case mix

Hospitals with better nurse ratios may also invest more in equipment, attract more experienced physicians, and treat less complex cases — those factors, not the ratio alone, may explain the lower mortality.

Argument: 'Violent video game sales have increased substantially over the past 20 years. During the same period, youth violence rates have declined. Therefore, playing violent video games does not cause youth violence.' Which of the following best identifies a flaw in this reasoning?

Answer: The argument relies on aggregate trends without examining whether individual heavy gamers are more violent than non-gamers

Aggregate trends can mask individual-level relationships. Even if overall youth violence fell (due to other societal factors), individual heavy gamers might still be more violent than their non-gaming peers — the population-level correlation doesn't rule out individual causation.

Argument: 'Our new marketing campaign launched six months ago coincided with a 15% increase in sales. The campaign clearly drove the sales increase and should be expanded.' Which of the following, if true, would provide the strongest evidence that the marketing campaign caused the sales increase?

Answer: Sales in regions where the campaign was not run remained flat during the same six months

A natural experiment: if regions without the campaign saw no sales growth while campaign regions grew 15%, the difference is most plausibly attributable to the campaign.

Argument: 'Vegetarians have been found to have lower rates of heart disease than meat-eaters. Therefore, eliminating meat from one's diet will reduce heart disease risk.' To evaluate this argument, it would be most important to determine:

Answer: Whether vegetarians differ from meat-eaters in other lifestyle factors such as exercise, smoking, and alcohol use

Vegetarians may also exercise more, smoke less, and drink less alcohol — the lower heart disease rate may reflect their overall healthier lifestyle, not specifically their meat avoidance.