FSOT Logical Reasoning 4 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: An analyst says: 'If the insurgency loses funding, it will collapse. The insurgency has not collapsed.' What follows logically?
- The insurgency has found new funding
- The insurgency has not lost its funding (Correct answer)
- The insurgency is growing stronger
- Foreign states are supporting the insurgency
Correct answer: The insurgency has not lost its funding
By modus tollens (not-Q therefore not-P), the insurgency has not collapsed, so it cannot have lost its funding.
Question 2: A diplomat claims: 'We achieved progress because we used back-channel talks.' Which evidence would most STRENGTHEN this claim?
- The formal talks also succeeded around the same time
- Previous negotiations without back-channels had consistently failed (Correct answer)
- The mediator attended both formal and back-channel sessions
- Other countries rarely use back-channel diplomacy
Correct answer: Previous negotiations without back-channels had consistently failed
Showing that formal talks without back-channels repeatedly failed supports the idea that back-channels were the key variable.
Question 3: Exactly three of five regional officers — M, N, O, P, Q — must attend the briefing. M and N cannot attend together. If M attends, which of the following groups is a valid set of attendees?
- M, N, O
- M, O, P (Correct answer)
- M, N, P
- M, N, Q
Correct answer: M, O, P
M, O, P excludes N, satisfying the constraint that M and N cannot attend together, and meets the count of exactly three.
Question 4: A policy that has worked in every tested Western democracy is proposed for a developing nation. The strongest logical objection is:
- Western democracies are generally wealthier
- Institutional, cultural, and economic conditions may differ significantly (Correct answer)
- The policy has not been tested for a long enough period
- Developing nations oppose Western influence
Correct answer: Institutional, cultural, and economic conditions may differ significantly
The core logical flaw is assuming transferability without accounting for differing conditions — a false analogy risk.
Question 5: Which of the following arguments contains a circular reasoning flaw?
- This treaty is fair because neutral parties endorsed it
- This policy is correct because it is the right thing to do (Correct answer)
- Sanctions failed because the target economy adapted
- Diplomacy is preferable because war is costly
Correct answer: This policy is correct because it is the right thing to do
'Correct because it is right' restates the conclusion as the premise — the definition of circular reasoning.
Question 6: A cable reports that 80% of surveyed nationals in Country Z prefer a trade agreement with the US. A senior officer dismisses this as meaningless. Which fact would best support the officer's skepticism?
- The survey was conducted online
- Only 50 people were surveyed in a country of 40 million (Correct answer)
- The survey was published by the government
- Trade agreements require legislative approval
Correct answer: Only 50 people were surveyed in a country of 40 million
A sample of 50 from a population of 40 million is statistically negligible, undermining the reliability of the 80% figure.
Question 7: Argument: 'Officer Lee was at post X when the leak occurred, so Lee must be the source.' This reasoning is flawed because:
- Presence at a location does not establish guilt (Correct answer)
- Lee has diplomatic immunity
- The leak may not have occurred
- Intelligence leaks are common
Correct answer: Presence at a location does not establish guilt
Being present is consistent with guilt but does not prove it — other individuals with access could be the source.
FSOT Logical Reasoning 4
An analyst says: 'If the insurgency loses funding, it will collapse.
The insurgency has not collapsed.' What follows logically?