FSOT Logical Reasoning 3 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Statement: 'Most analysts who predicted the crisis were ignored.' Which of the following is most directly supported by this statement?
- All warnings about the crisis were ignored
- At least some correct predictions went unheeded (Correct answer)
- No analyst successfully predicted the crisis
- Analysts who predicted the crisis were later rewarded
Correct answer: At least some correct predictions went unheeded
'Most' implies a majority but not all; it directly supports that at least some accurate predictions were not acted upon.
Question 2: Country P will join the alliance only if Country Q also joins. Country Q has declined to join. What can be concluded about Country P?
- Country P will join the alliance independently
- Country P will not join the alliance (Correct answer)
- Country P is reconsidering its conditions
- Country P and Q will form a separate pact
Correct answer: Country P will not join the alliance
P's condition (Q joining) has not been met, so by modus tollens P will not join.
Question 3: A negotiator argues: 'Every concession we make emboldens the other side.' Which scenario most weakens this claim?
- The other side made no concessions
- A past concession led to a reciprocal agreement (Correct answer)
- The negotiation has stalled for three months
- The other side replaced its lead negotiator
Correct answer: A past concession led to a reciprocal agreement
A concession that produced a reciprocal agreement contradicts the claim that concessions only embolden the opponent.
Question 4: All FSOs assigned to hardship posts receive a differential allowance. Officer Chen is not receiving a differential allowance. What follows?
- Officer Chen is not assigned to a hardship post (Correct answer)
- Officer Chen has declined the allowance
- Officer Chen is on temporary duty
- Officer Chen's assignment is classified
Correct answer: Officer Chen is not assigned to a hardship post
By contrapositive, if Chen is not receiving the allowance, Chen cannot be assigned to a hardship post.
Question 5: Which pattern of reasoning is MOST similar to: 'Republics that hold free elections are democracies; Varia holds free elections; therefore Varia is a democracy'?
- All birds fly; penguins are birds; therefore penguins fly
- All metals conduct electricity; copper is a metal; therefore copper conducts electricity (Correct answer)
- Some fish live in rivers; salmon are fish; therefore salmon live in rivers
- No reptiles are warm-blooded; snakes are reptiles; therefore snakes are warm-blooded
Correct answer: All metals conduct electricity; copper is a metal; therefore copper conducts electricity
Copper-is-a-metal follows the same valid syllogism structure (All A→B; X is A; therefore X is B) as the original argument.
Question 6: A policy memo states: 'Increasing consular staff will reduce visa wait times.' A critic responds that wait times rose in two cities that hired more staff. The critic's best logical move is to show what?
- That the policy memo is politically motivated
- That the two cities are representative counterexamples
- That consular staff salaries are too high
- That visa applicants increased in those cities (Correct answer)
Correct answer: That visa applicants increased in those cities
Showing that applicant volume rose in those cities explains why wait times increased despite more staff, rebutting the counterexample.
Question 7: The State Department releases a report every year that a human rights violation is documented. Violations were documented in 2023, 2024, and 2025. What is the strongest logical conclusion?
- A report was released in 2023, 2024, and 2025 (Correct answer)
- No violations occurred before 2023
- The reports influenced foreign policy
- Violations will continue in 2026
Correct answer: A report was released in 2023, 2024, and 2025
Given violations were documented in those years, the conditional rule guarantees a report was released each year.
FSOT Logical Reasoning 3
Statement: 'Most analysts who predicted the crisis were ignored.' Which of the following is most directly supported by this statement?