FSOT Logical Reasoning 2 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: All diplomatic cables marked 'NODIS' are seen only by the addressee. Cable X is marked 'NODIS.' Which conclusion is valid?
- Cable X may be shared with any cleared staff
- Cable X is seen only by its addressee (Correct answer)
- Cable X requires congressional notification
- Cable X is automatically declassified after 25 years
Correct answer: Cable X is seen only by its addressee
The universal statement 'All NODIS cables are seen only by the addressee' directly applies to Cable X.
Question 2: A foreign ministry issues a statement only when it has verified the facts. It has not issued a statement on the border incident. What can be concluded?
- The incident did not occur
- The ministry has verified no facts about the incident
- The ministry has not yet verified the facts (Correct answer)
- The incident is classified
Correct answer: The ministry has not yet verified the facts
No statement means the sufficient condition (verified facts) has not been met, so facts are unverified — not that the incident is false.
Question 3: Country A exports wheat to Country B. Country B's harvest improves dramatically. What is the most logical consequence?
- Country A will increase wheat production
- Country B will likely import less wheat from Country A (Correct answer)
- Country A will diversify into other crops immediately
- Country B will ban wheat imports
Correct answer: Country B will likely import less wheat from Country A
A better domestic harvest reduces Country B's need to import wheat, so imports from A will likely decrease.
Question 4: If a treaty requires ratification by two-thirds of the Senate, and only 60 of 100 senators support it, what follows?
- The treaty passes with conditions
- The treaty fails to reach the required threshold (Correct answer)
- The President can bypass the Senate
- The treaty is sent back to negotiation automatically
Correct answer: The treaty fails to reach the required threshold
Two-thirds of 100 is 67 votes; 60 votes falls short, so the treaty cannot be ratified.
Question 5: Argument: 'We should not sanction Country X because sanctions hurt ordinary citizens.' Which response best challenges this reasoning?
- Sanctions are illegal under international law
- Ordinary citizens are not responsible for their government's actions
- Sanctions can be targeted at elites rather than the general population (Correct answer)
- Country X has not violated any treaties
Correct answer: Sanctions can be targeted at elites rather than the general population
Targeted sanctions on leadership undercut the premise that sanctions necessarily harm ordinary citizens.
Question 6: No embassy staff with access to classified systems may use personal devices at work. Officer Rivera uses a personal phone in the embassy. What follows?
- Rivera must not have access to classified systems (Correct answer)
- Rivera has violated embassy policy
- Rivera's phone has been confiscated
- Rivera is under investigation
Correct answer: Rivera must not have access to classified systems
If Rivera uses a personal phone, the rule means Rivera cannot have classified-system access — otherwise a violation would be certain, which we can only infer if the rule is broken.
Question 7: A survey finds that countries with higher foreign aid receipts have lower GDP growth rates. A commentator concludes that foreign aid causes slow growth. What is the main flaw?
- The sample size is too small
- Correlation does not establish causation (Correct answer)
- GDP growth is not a reliable metric
- The survey was conducted by a biased source
Correct answer: Correlation does not establish causation
Observing a correlation between two variables does not prove that one causes the other; a third factor or reverse causation may explain the pattern.
FSOT Logical Reasoning 2
All diplomatic cables marked 'NODIS' are seen only by the addressee.
Cable X is marked 'NODIS.' Which conclusion is valid?