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Quantitative Analysis Flashcards

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  1. Which VaR methodology directly uses actual historical returns without assuming a specific distribution?

    Answer: Historical Simulation VaR

    Historical Simulation VaR uses the actual sequence of historical returns to generate a loss distribution, making no parametric assumption about the return distribution.

  2. Expected Shortfall (ES) is considered superior to VaR primarily because:

    Answer: It measures the average loss in the tail beyond the VaR threshold and is sub-additive

    ES captures the average severity of tail losses beyond the VaR cutoff and satisfies sub-additivity, meaning portfolio ES ≤ sum of individual ESs, unlike VaR.

  3. If a portfolio has a 1-day 95% VaR of $1 million, the approximate 10-day 95% VaR (assuming i.i.d. returns) is:

    Answer: $3.16 million

    Using the square-root-of-time rule, 10-day VaR = 1-day VaR × √10 = $1M × 3.162 ≈ $3.16 million.

  4. A key advantage of Monte Carlo simulation for VaR estimation over parametric methods is that it:

    Answer: Can model complex non-linear payoffs and non-normal distributions

    Monte Carlo simulation can incorporate non-linear instruments like options, fat-tailed distributions, and complex correlations, making it far more flexible than parametric methods.

  5. Backtesting a VaR model involves:

    Answer: Comparing predicted VaR against actual daily P&L to count exceptions

    Backtesting counts how often actual losses exceed the predicted VaR (exceptions) over a historical period to assess whether the model is accurately calibrated.

  6. A copula function in quantitative risk modeling is used to:

    Answer: Model the joint dependency structure of risk factors independently of their marginal distributions

    A copula separates the dependency structure from the marginal distributions, enabling flexible modeling of joint tail behavior and non-linear dependence between risk factors.

  7. Which VaR calculation approach assumes normally distributed returns and computes risk using mean, standard deviation, and a z-score?

    Answer: Delta-Normal (parametric) method

    The Delta-Normal parametric method assumes normally distributed returns and computes VaR as: VaR = μ − z × σ, where z is the standard normal quantile for the chosen confidence level.