FAST Critical Thinking and Decision Making 4

Question 1

A supervisor notices that every time a new employee joins the team, productivity drops for two weeks.
She concludes that new employees cause productivity loss.
What logical flaw does this reasoning contain?

Accepted Answer

Correlation is mistaken for causation

Answer

The sample size is too large

Answer

The conclusion is based on future events

Answer

The supervisor ignored contradictory evidence

Question 2

You must choose between Project A (guaranteed $50,000 gain) and Project B (60% chance of $100,000, 40% chance of $0). Which statement best describes the rational decision framework?

Accepted Answer

Project B has a higher expected value and may be preferred depending on risk tolerance

Answer

Project A is always the better choice because it eliminates risk

Answer

Project B is always superior because the potential gain is larger

Answer

Neither project can be evaluated without knowing the time frame

Question 3

A manager receives a report showing that sales declined in Q3. Before drawing conclusions, which type of information is most critical to obtain first?

Accepted Answer

Baseline or comparative data from prior periods and industry trends

Answer

The names of the sales representatives involved

Answer

The marketing budget for Q4

Answer

Customer satisfaction scores from Q1

Question 4

An analyst argues: 'Our top competitor lowered prices, so we must lower ours too.' Which critical thinking error is most evident?

Accepted Answer

False dilemma — assuming only one response is possible

Answer

Ad hominem — attacking the competitor personally

Answer

Slippery slope — assuming one change leads to disaster

Answer

Circular reasoning — the conclusion repeats the premise

Question 5

During a group decision meeting, every team member quickly agrees with the leader's first proposal without raising concerns. This phenomenon is best described as:

Accepted Answer

Groupthink

Answer

Confirmation bias

Answer

The halo effect

Answer

Anchoring bias

Question 6

A decision-maker uses only the first piece of information received to evaluate all subsequent data. This is an example of which cognitive bias?

Accepted Answer

Anchoring bias

Answer

Availability heuristic

Answer

Sunk cost fallacy

Answer

Representativeness heuristic

Question 7

A team has invested $200,000 in a project that is now clearly failing. Some members argue they must continue because of money already spent. What fallacy is this?

Accepted Answer

Sunk cost fallacy

Answer

Opportunity cost error

Answer

Risk aversion bias

Answer

Escalation heuristic