FAST Critical Thinking and Decision Making 1 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A manager receives two reports: Report A shows that 80% of employees prefer remote work, while Report B shows that productivity dropped 15% after remote work was introduced. What is the most critical thinking error if the manager concludes 'Remote work is bad because productivity dropped'?
- Ignoring the correlation between employee preference and retention
- Assuming causation from correlation without ruling out other factors (Correct answer)
- Failing to calculate the statistical significance of the data
- Not interviewing employees about their remote work experience
Correct answer: Assuming causation from correlation without ruling out other factors
Concluding that remote work caused the productivity drop assumes causation from correlation without considering confounding variables such as the transition period, lack of infrastructure, or simultaneous events.
Question 2: Which of the following best describes a 'false dilemma' fallacy?
- Presenting only two options as if they are the only possibilities when more exist (Correct answer)
- Drawing a conclusion based on a small and unrepresentative sample
- Attacking the person making an argument rather than the argument itself
- Assuming that what is true of the whole is true of its parts
Correct answer: Presenting only two options as if they are the only possibilities when more exist
A false dilemma presents only two choices as exhaustive when additional alternatives actually exist, artificially limiting the decision space.
Question 3: An analyst notices that ice cream sales and drowning incidents both increase in summer. She concludes that eating ice cream causes drowning. Which critical thinking principle does this violate most directly?
- The principle of parsimony
- The distinction between correlation and causation (Correct answer)
- The law of non-contradiction
- The principle of falsifiability
Correct answer: The distinction between correlation and causation
Both variables are linked to a third factor (hot weather/summer), so concluding causation from correlation alone is a fundamental critical thinking error.
Question 4: When evaluating a source of information, which factor is MOST important for determining its credibility?
- The source has a large online following
- The source provides verifiable evidence and cites primary references (Correct answer)
- The source's conclusions align with widely held beliefs
- The source uses confident and authoritative language
Correct answer: The source provides verifiable evidence and cites primary references
Credible sources provide verifiable evidence and cite primary references, allowing independent verification rather than relying on popularity or tone.
Question 5: A company's sales increased 40% after a new CEO was hired. A board member concludes the CEO is responsible for the improvement. What type of reasoning error is this?
- Slippery slope fallacy
- Post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this, therefore because of this) (Correct answer)
- Straw man fallacy
- Appeal to authority
Correct answer: Post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this, therefore because of this)
Post hoc reasoning incorrectly assumes that because one event followed another, the first event caused the second, without evidence of a causal mechanism.
Question 6: In decision-making under uncertainty, what does 'expected value' help a decision-maker assess?
- The most likely single outcome of a decision
- The probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes (Correct answer)
- The minimum guaranteed return of a strategy
- The outcome that occurs most frequently in historical data
Correct answer: The probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes
Expected value is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by its probability and summing the results, giving a weighted average to guide rational decisions under uncertainty.
Question 7: Which of the following is an example of 'confirmation bias' in professional decision making?
- A doctor orders additional tests to rule out every possible diagnosis
- An investor only reads articles that support their existing stock picks (Correct answer)
- A researcher changes their hypothesis after reviewing contradictory data
- A manager surveys all employees before implementing a new policy
Correct answer: An investor only reads articles that support their existing stock picks
Confirmation bias occurs when individuals seek out or favor information that confirms their preexisting beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
FAST Critical Thinking and Decision Making 1
A manager receives two reports: Report A shows that 80% of employees prefer remote work, while Report B shows that productivity dropped 15% after remote work was introduced.
What is the most critical thinking error if the manager concludes 'Remote work is bad because productivity dropped'?