Critical Thinking and Decision Making Flashcards
7 cards from real FAST practice questions. Tap to flip, then mark Knew It or Still Learning — missed cards come back until you master them.
Read the first 7 Critical Thinking and Decision Making flashcards as text
A manager receives two reports: Report A shows that 80% of employees prefer remote work, while Report B shows that productivity dropped 15% after remote work was introduced. What is the most critical thinking error if the manager concludes 'Remote work is bad because productivity dropped'?
Answer: Assuming causation from correlation without ruling out other factors
Concluding that remote work caused the productivity drop assumes causation from correlation without considering confounding variables such as the transition period, lack of infrastructure, or simultaneous events.
Which of the following best describes a 'false dilemma' fallacy?
Answer: Presenting only two options as if they are the only possibilities when more exist
A false dilemma presents only two choices as exhaustive when additional alternatives actually exist, artificially limiting the decision space.
An analyst notices that ice cream sales and drowning incidents both increase in summer. She concludes that eating ice cream causes drowning. Which critical thinking principle does this violate most directly?
Answer: The distinction between correlation and causation
Both variables are linked to a third factor (hot weather/summer), so concluding causation from correlation alone is a fundamental critical thinking error.
When evaluating a source of information, which factor is MOST important for determining its credibility?
Answer: The source provides verifiable evidence and cites primary references
Credible sources provide verifiable evidence and cite primary references, allowing independent verification rather than relying on popularity or tone.
A company's sales increased 40% after a new CEO was hired. A board member concludes the CEO is responsible for the improvement. What type of reasoning error is this?
Answer: Post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this, therefore because of this)
Post hoc reasoning incorrectly assumes that because one event followed another, the first event caused the second, without evidence of a causal mechanism.
In decision-making under uncertainty, what does 'expected value' help a decision-maker assess?
Answer: The probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes
Expected value is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by its probability and summing the results, giving a weighted average to guide rational decisions under uncertainty.
Which of the following is an example of 'confirmation bias' in professional decision making?
Answer: An investor only reads articles that support their existing stock picks
Confirmation bias occurs when individuals seek out or favor information that confirms their preexisting beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.