CST CST Schedule Risk & Contingency Analysis 2 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: What AACE International recommended practice provides guidance on schedule risk analysis?
- AACE RP 57R-09 (Correct answer)
- AACE RP 10S-90
- AACE RP 18R-97
- AACE RP 29R-03
Correct answer: AACE RP 57R-09
AACE RP 57R-09 provides a framework for integrated cost and schedule risk analysis, including Monte Carlo simulation methods for project schedules.
Question 2: In schedule risk analysis, what does a 'three-point estimate' consist of?
- Optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic duration estimates for an activity (Correct answer)
- Early start, planned start, and late start dates
- Minimum, average, and maximum resource units
- Best case, base case, and worst case cost estimates
Correct answer: Optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic duration estimates for an activity
A three-point estimate uses optimistic (O), most likely (M), and pessimistic (P) durations to model activity duration uncertainty for risk analysis.
Question 3: What is schedule risk exposure?
- The product of the probability of a risk event occurring and its schedule impact in days (Correct answer)
- The total number of risks identified in the risk register
- The difference between the planned and actual completion date
- The sum of all float across the project network
Correct answer: The product of the probability of a risk event occurring and its schedule impact in days
Schedule risk exposure quantifies the expected schedule impact of a risk by multiplying its probability of occurrence by the number of days of delay it would cause.
Question 4: Which technique involves deliberately planning workarounds in advance for risks that have high probability and high schedule impact?
- Contingency planning (Correct answer)
- Risk acceptance
- Risk escalation
- Residual risk monitoring
Correct answer: Contingency planning
Contingency planning creates predefined response strategies (workarounds) for high-probability, high-impact risks so that the team can react quickly if those risks materialize.
Question 5: In a Monte Carlo schedule simulation, what does a wider spread in the S-curve output indicate?
- Greater uncertainty and risk in the schedule (Correct answer)
- A more detailed and accurate schedule
- Fewer activities on the critical path
- Better resource allocation
Correct answer: Greater uncertainty and risk in the schedule
A wider S-curve spread in Monte Carlo output indicates that the range of possible completion dates is large, reflecting higher schedule uncertainty and risk.
Question 6: What is the purpose of a 'risk register' in schedule risk management?
- To document identified risks, their probability, impact, and response strategies (Correct answer)
- To track actual schedule performance against baseline
- To record all schedule changes and revisions
- To list all project milestones and their owners
Correct answer: To document identified risks, their probability, impact, and response strategies
The risk register is a project document that captures all identified risks along with their probability, potential schedule impact, and planned mitigation or contingency responses.
CST CST Schedule Risk & Contingency Analysis 2
What AACE International recommended practice provides guidance on schedule risk analysis?