CPL Problem Solving & Decision Making 3 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A program leader is evaluating three alternative strategies. One option has the highest expected value but also the highest variance in outcomes. What concept describes this trade-off?
- Opportunity cost
- Risk-return trade-off (Correct answer)
- Sunk cost fallacy
- Diminishing marginal utility
Correct answer: Risk-return trade-off
The risk-return trade-off reflects that higher potential returns typically come with greater uncertainty or variability.
Question 2: Which cognitive bias causes a program leader to give more weight to the first piece of information received when making a decision?
- Confirmation bias
- Anchoring bias (Correct answer)
- Availability heuristic
- Groupthink
Correct answer: Anchoring bias
Anchoring bias occurs when the first data point disproportionately influences subsequent judgments.
Question 3: A program leader applies the '5 Whys' technique. What is the PRIMARY goal of this approach?
- To enumerate all possible solutions to a problem
- To assign accountability to team members
- To drill down to the root cause by repeatedly asking why (Correct answer)
- To rank risks from highest to lowest priority
Correct answer: To drill down to the root cause by repeatedly asking why
The 5 Whys iteratively questions each answer to surface the underlying root cause rather than treating symptoms.
Question 4: In a program governance meeting, the steering committee cannot reach consensus on a critical path decision. What is the program leader's BEST course of action?
- Make the decision unilaterally to avoid further delay
- Table the decision indefinitely until consensus emerges naturally
- Present structured options with analysis to facilitate a facilitated decision (Correct answer)
- Defer all decisions to the individual project managers
Correct answer: Present structured options with analysis to facilitate a facilitated decision
Providing structured analysis and facilitating discussion helps governing bodies make timely, informed decisions.
Question 5: A program encounters an unexpected regulatory change that threatens a key deliverable. Using a structured problem-solving approach, what should the program leader do FIRST?
- Immediately notify the media and external stakeholders
- Clearly define and document the problem and its scope (Correct answer)
- Implement a workaround based on the most recent similar issue
- Suspend all program activities until the regulation is clarified
Correct answer: Clearly define and document the problem and its scope
Structured problem solving always begins with a clear problem definition to avoid solving the wrong issue.
Question 6: Which tool allows a program leader to visually compare multiple decision alternatives across several weighted criteria?
- Scatter diagram
- Weighted decision matrix (Correct answer)
- Control chart
- Gantt chart
Correct answer: Weighted decision matrix
A weighted decision matrix scores and compares alternatives against criteria with assigned importance weights.
Question 7: Sunk cost fallacy in program decision making refers to the tendency to:
- Overestimate benefits because of optimism bias
- Continue investing in a failing initiative because of past expenditures (Correct answer)
- Underestimate risks due to overconfidence
- Avoid making decisions to prevent accountability
Correct answer: Continue investing in a failing initiative because of past expenditures
Sunk cost fallacy causes decision makers to justify continued investment based on irrecoverable past costs rather than future value.
CPL Problem Solving & Decision Making 3
A program leader is evaluating three alternative strategies.
One option has the highest expected value but also the highest variance in outcomes.
What concept describes this trade-off?