Cognitive Reflection Heuristics and Common Biases Questions and Answers 1 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A researcher presents a group of participants with a personality sketch of 'Linda,' describing her as a 31-year-old, single, outspoken, and very bright philosophy major who is deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice. When asked which is more probable, participants are more likely to say 'Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement' than 'Linda is a bank teller.' This is a classic example of which cognitive bias?
- Anchoring Bias
- Conjunction Fallacy (Correct answer)
- Availability Heuristic
- Confirmation Bias
Correct answer: Conjunction Fallacy
The Conjunction Fallacy occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one. The probability of two events occurring together (in conjunction) is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone. In this case, it is statistically more probable that Linda is a bank teller than that she is both a bank teller and a feminist, but the descriptive details make the combined option seem more representative of her personality.
Question 2: After seeing several sensational news reports about a rare but severe disease outbreak in a neighboring country, a person cancels their international travel plans, despite statistics showing the actual risk of contracting the disease is extremely low. This decision is most likely influenced by the:
- Availability Heuristic (Correct answer)
- Representativeness Heuristic
- Framing Effect
- Anchoring Bias
Correct answer: Availability Heuristic
The Availability Heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision. The vivid and recent news reports make the disease seem more common and threatening than it actually is, leading to an overestimation of the risk.
Question 3: A car salesman starts negotiations for a used car by stating a very high initial price. A potential buyer, even though they know the price is inflated, tends to make subsequent offers closer to this initial high price than they would have otherwise. This is a clear demonstration of the:
- Confirmation Bias
- Framing Effect
- Anchoring Bias (Correct answer)
- Representativeness Heuristic
Correct answer: Anchoring Bias
Anchoring Bias is the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the 'anchor') when making decisions. In this scenario, the initial high price serves as an anchor that influences the buyer's perception of the car's value and the range of reasonable offers.
Question 4: Which of the following scenarios best illustrates the 'Framing Effect'?
- A manager hires a candidate who shares their alma mater, believing they are more competent than a more qualified candidate from another school.
- An investor continues to put money into a failing project because they have already invested so much, rather than cutting their losses.
- A patient is more likely to choose a medical procedure described as having a '90% survival rate' over one described as having a '10% mortality rate,' even though they are statistically identical. (Correct answer)
- A person overestimates the number of deaths from airplane crashes because such events are heavily reported in the media.
Correct answer: A patient is more likely to choose a medical procedure described as having a '90% survival rate' over one described as having a '10% mortality rate,' even though they are statistically identical.
The Framing Effect is a cognitive bias where people decide on options based on whether the options are presented with positive or negative connotations; e.g., as a loss or as a gain. The choice between a '90% survival rate' (positive frame) and a '10% mortality rate' (negative frame) is the classic example of this bias, as the same information presented differently leads to different choices.
Question 5: An investigator has an early suspect in a criminal case. During the investigation, they tend to seek out and give more weight to evidence that supports the suspect's guilt while unintentionally downplaying or ignoring evidence that points to their innocence. This cognitive error is known as:
- Anchoring Bias
- Confirmation Bias (Correct answer)
- Availability Heuristic
- Conjunction Fallacy
Correct answer: Confirmation Bias
Confirmation Bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or hypotheses. The investigator is actively looking for evidence to confirm their initial theory rather than evaluating all evidence objectively.
Question 6: A human resources manager is reviewing applications. They come across a candidate who graduated from a prestigious university. The manager immediately forms a positive impression and assumes the candidate is highly intelligent and competent, overlooking some weaknesses in their actual work experience. This judgment is primarily driven by the:
- Framing Effect
- Anchoring Bias
- Availability Heuristic
- Representativeness Heuristic (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Representativeness Heuristic
The Representativeness Heuristic involves making judgments by comparing the present situation to a mental prototype or stereotype. The manager is judging the candidate based on how well they match the stereotype of a graduate from a prestigious university (i.e., intelligent and competent), rather than on their individual qualifications.
Cognitive Reflection Heuristics and Common Biases Questions and Answers 1
A researcher presents a group of participants with a personality sketch of 'Linda,' describing her as a 31-year-old, single, outspoken, and very bright philosophy major who is deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice.
When asked which is more probable, participants are more likely to say 'Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement' than 'Linda is a bank teller.' This is a classic example of which cognitive bias?