Civil Service Verbal Reasoning Test Critical Thinking 2

Question 1

A government press release states: 'Crime has fallen by 12% this year, demonstrating that our policing strategy is working.' Which of the following would most strengthen this claim?

Accepted Answer

Areas where the new policing strategy was implemented saw significantly greater crime reductions than areas where it was not

Answer

If areas with the new strategy saw greater reductions than areas without it, this provides comparative evidence that the strategy specifically caused the improvement, rather than other factors. This directly strengthens the causal link claimed in the press release.

Question 2

A Treasury analysis concludes: 'Tax receipts increased by 5% last year. This demonstrates that the economy is growing strongly.' What is the most significant flaw in this reasoning?

Accepted Answer

The increase could be due to raised tax rates rather than economic growth

Answer

Tax receipts can increase either because the economy grew (larger tax base) or because tax rates were raised (same base, higher rate). Without distinguishing between these causes, concluding that the increase demonstrates economic growth is a logical flaw — the same effect could have a completely different cause.

Question 3

A departmental memo argues: 'We should not invest in upgrading our IT systems because the last IT upgrade in 2019 went over budget by 40% and caused significant disruption.' What type of reasoning flaw does this represent?

Accepted Answer

Hasty generalisation — drawing a broad conclusion from a single past experience

Answer

Concluding that all future IT upgrades will fail based on one previous experience is a hasty generalisation. A single data point does not establish a reliable pattern, and circumstances, technology, and project management may have changed significantly since 2019.

Question 4

A policy adviser argues: 'Norway has an excellent state pension system and also has high levels of oil revenue. The UK should therefore increase oil production to fund better pensions.' What is the primary logical error?

Accepted Answer

Assuming correlation implies causation between oil revenue and pension quality

Answer

The argument observes that Norway has both oil revenue and good pensions, then assumes one causes the other. However, Norway's pension system may be excellent for many reasons unrelated to oil revenue (e.g., political choices, tax policy, demographic factors). Treating co-occurrence as causation is the central flaw.

Question 5

A report states: '95% of civil servants who completed the new training programme rated it as useful. This confirms the programme should be rolled out to all staff.' Which consideration most weakens this conclusion?

Accepted Answer

Only volunteers participated, and those who volunteered may have been predisposed to find it useful

Answer

Self-selection bias is the key issue. If only volunteers participated, they were likely already motivated and interested in the training, making them predisposed to rate it positively. Mandatory rollout to all staff — including those who would not have volunteered — may produce very different satisfaction levels.

Civil Service Verbal Reasoning Practice Test

Civil Service Verbal Reasoning Practice Test

Civil Service Verbal Reasoning Test Critical Thinking 2