CEP Risk Analysis & Value Engineering 5

Question 1

A P80 confidence level on a cost estimate means:

Accepted Answer

There is an 80% probability the actual cost will not exceed this value

Answer

P80 (the 80th percentile) means 80% of simulated outcomes fall at or below that cost, leaving a 20% chance of exceeding it.

Question 2

Which risk identification technique uses anonymous rounds of expert questioning to reach group consensus on risk likelihood?

Accepted Answer

Delphi technique

Answer

The Delphi technique iteratively collects and refines expert opinions anonymously to reduce bias and reach convergence.

Question 3

In value engineering, the function 'support weight' for a structural beam is written in what format?

Accepted Answer

Verb + noun (active verb + measurable noun)

Answer

VE function descriptions always use an active verb combined with a measurable noun to define what the item does.

Question 4

What is the primary purpose of a pre-mortem analysis in project risk management?

Accepted Answer

Proactively identify reasons why the project might fail before it starts

Answer

A pre-mortem imagines the project has already failed and works backward to identify potential causes, surfacing risks early.

Question 5

Which quantitative risk analysis output helps identify the percentage of total risk attributed to each individual risk source?

Accepted Answer

Risk contribution analysis

Answer

Risk contribution analysis decomposes total project risk variance to show each risk's proportional contribution to overall uncertainty.

(CEP) Certified Estimating Professional Practice Test