CEM Hazard Identification & Risk Analysis 4 ā Questions and Answers
Question 1: Which step in the THIRA (Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment) process involves establishing desired outcomes for each threat or hazard?
- Give the threat or hazard context
- Establish capability targets (Correct answer)
- Identify threats and hazards
- Apply the results
Correct answer: Establish capability targets
Step 3 of THIRAāEstablish Capability Targetsādefines the specific outcomes a community needs to achieve in response to each threat or hazard scenario.
Question 2: In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the output is typically expressed as:
- The maximum possible earthquake magnitude for a fault
- Ground motion levels with specified probabilities of exceedance over a time period (Correct answer)
- A list of historic earthquakes ranked by damage caused
- The distance from the nearest fault to a critical facility
Correct answer: Ground motion levels with specified probabilities of exceedance over a time period
PSHA produces hazard curves showing the annual probability of exceeding various ground motion levels, often expressed as a 2% or 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.
Question 3: The 'annualized loss estimate' used in hazard mitigation planning represents:
- The total projected losses from all hazard events in a 100-year period
- The expected average annual losses calculated from probability-weighted damage estimates (Correct answer)
- The insurance payout from the single worst hazard event in history
- The maximum credible loss from a worst-case hazard scenario
Correct answer: The expected average annual losses calculated from probability-weighted damage estimates
Annualized loss estimates multiply the probability of each loss scenario by its expected damage to produce an average expected annual loss figure.
Question 4: Which organization publishes the National Risk Index, a dataset ranking U.S. counties by natural hazard risk?
- NOAA
- FEMA (Correct answer)
- USGS
- NWS
Correct answer: FEMA
FEMA's National Risk Index combines expected annual loss data, social vulnerability, and community resilience scores to rank counties by composite natural hazard risk.
Question 5: In a bow-tie risk diagram, the left side (fault tree) depicts _____, while the right side (event tree) depicts _____.
- Recovery measures; prevention barriers
- Threats leading to a hazard event; consequences following a hazard event (Correct answer)
- Mitigation costs; response costs
- Primary hazards; secondary hazards
Correct answer: Threats leading to a hazard event; consequences following a hazard event
A bow-tie diagram combines fault tree analysis on the left (threats/causes leading to the top event) with event tree analysis on the right (consequences and recovery paths).
Question 6: Which vulnerability indicator is most associated with technological and industrial hazard risk assessments?
- Population density within evacuation zones
- Proximity of sensitive populations to hazardous facilities (Correct answer)
- Soil liquefaction potential in residential areas
- Presence of repetitive-loss properties in floodplains
Correct answer: Proximity of sensitive populations to hazardous facilities
In technological hazard assessments, the proximity of sensitive populationsāsuch as schools or nursing homesāto industrial facilities is a critical vulnerability indicator.
Question 7: A 'maximum probable loss' (MPL) estimate in risk analysis represents:
- The total replacement value of all assets in a jurisdiction
- The worst loss expected under realistic adverse conditions, excluding catastrophic scenarios (Correct answer)
- The minimum loss guaranteed to occur in a hazard event
- The insured value of critical infrastructure assets
Correct answer: The worst loss expected under realistic adverse conditions, excluding catastrophic scenarios
MPL estimates the largest loss likely under unfavorable but realistic conditions, excluding extreme low-probability catastrophic scenarios often used for insurance underwriting.
CEM Hazard Identification & Risk Analysis 4
Which step in the THIRA (Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment) process involves establishing desired outcomes for each threat or hazard?