CCTST Inductive Reasoning 4 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A mechanic concludes that a particular car model has a faulty transmission because three different owners reported the same problem. This is most similar to which type of inductive reasoning?
- Statistical syllogism
- Causal induction (Correct answer)
- Argument from analogy
- Mathematical induction
Correct answer: Causal induction
Causal induction infers that repeated co-occurrence of events reveals a causal relationship between them.
Question 2: Which of the following best illustrates the difference between a strong and a cogent inductive argument?
- A strong argument has true premises; a cogent argument has false premises
- A cogent argument is strong AND has true premises; a strong argument may have false premises (Correct answer)
- A strong argument is deductive; a cogent argument is inductive
- There is no difference between strong and cogent inductive arguments
Correct answer: A cogent argument is strong AND has true premises; a strong argument may have false premises
Cogency requires both inductive strength (evidence supports conclusion) and true premises; a strong argument may still be unsound if premises are false.
Question 3: A poll shows 60% of respondents support a new policy. The poll sampled 1,000 people randomly from a population of 300 million. The conclusion 'most Americans support the policy' is:
- Certainly true
- Inductively supported but not certain (Correct answer)
- Completely unsupported
- A deductive conclusion
Correct answer: Inductively supported but not certain
A properly randomized sample provides inductive support for a population-level conclusion, though certainty is impossible.
Question 4: Which of Mill's Methods identifies a cause by finding that the one factor present in all cases where an effect occurs is the likely cause?
- Method of Difference
- Method of Agreement (Correct answer)
- Method of Residues
- Method of Concomitant Variation
Correct answer: Method of Agreement
Mill's Method of Agreement identifies the single common factor across all cases where the effect is observed as the probable cause.
Question 5: A company notices that sales increase whenever they run TV ads and decrease when they stop. They conclude TV ads cause higher sales. Which of Mill's Methods does this most resemble?
- Method of Agreement
- Method of Difference
- Method of Concomitant Variation (Correct answer)
- Method of Residues
Correct answer: Method of Concomitant Variation
Method of Concomitant Variation identifies causes by tracking how changes in one variable correlate with changes in another.
Question 6: An argument from analogy concludes that two things are similar in one respect because they are similar in others. The argument is weakened when:
- The compared items share many relevant features
- The compared items differ significantly in relevant ways (Correct answer)
- The conclusion concerns a known property
- The analogy uses only two cases
Correct answer: The compared items differ significantly in relevant ways
Significant relevant differences between the compared items undermine the analogical inference.
Question 7: A researcher finds a strong positive correlation between ice cream sales and drowning rates. She concludes ice cream causes drowning. The error in this inductive reasoning is:
- Hasty generalization
- Biased sample
- Confusing correlation with causation (Correct answer)
- False dilemma
Correct answer: Confusing correlation with causation
Both ice cream sales and drowning rates rise in summer due to the lurking variable of hot weather, not a direct causal link.
CCTST Inductive Reasoning 4
A mechanic concludes that a particular car model has a faulty transmission because three different owners reported the same problem.
This is most similar to which type of inductive reasoning?