CBA Forecasting & Revenue Estimation

Question 1

Which forecasting method uses historical data patterns and trends to project future revenues without relying on causal relationships?

Accepted Answer

Time series analysis

Answer

Time series analysis extracts patterns such as trends, seasonality, and cycles from historical data to project future values without modeling causal factors.

Question 2

A budget analyst is preparing a five-year revenue forecast and wants to account for the relationship between GDP growth and tax receipts. Which technique is most appropriate?

Accepted Answer

Econometric regression

Answer

Econometric regression models quantify the statistical relationship between economic indicators like GDP and dependent variables such as tax receipts.

Question 3

When using exponential smoothing for revenue forecasting, a smoothing factor (α) closer to 1.0 will:

Accepted Answer

Give more weight to recent observations

Answer

A smoothing factor near 1.0 places nearly all weight on the most recent observation, making the forecast highly responsive to recent changes.

Question 4

Which of the following best describes a consensus-based qualitative forecasting method that iterates anonymous expert opinions until convergence?

Accepted Answer

Delphi method

Answer

The Delphi method gathers anonymous expert judgments in successive rounds, sharing summarized results each round until the group reaches consensus.

Question 5

A revenue estimate based on the assumption that current policy and economic conditions remain unchanged is called a:

Accepted Answer

Current services baseline

Answer

A current services baseline projects revenues and expenditures assuming existing laws, regulations, and economic conditions continue without change.

(CBA) Certified Budget Analyst Practice Test

(CBA) Certified Budget Analyst Practice Test

CBA Forecasting & Revenue Estimation